Integrasi Augmentasi Data dan Machine Learning dalam Prediksi Magnitudo Gempa Bumi

Hastari Utama — 2025-08-13

This research aims to enhance the accuracy of earthquake magnitude prediction through an integration of data augmentation techniques and machine learning based on the Random Forest Regressor, supported by geospatial visualization for in-depth analysis. The dataset used originates from the USGS (United States Geological Survey) in CSV format, encompassing over a thousand global earthquake events within one month, with seismic parameters such as location (latitude, longitude), depth, magnitude, and recording quality. In the context of imbalanced data—dominated by small earthquakes and rare large ones—a data augmentation technique based on noise injection into spatial features (latitude, longitude) and depth was applied, resulting in a dataset five times larger than the original. Evaluation results demonstrate significant improvement in model performance: MAE decreased from 0.2467 to 0.1046 (a 57.6% reduction), RMSE dropped from 0.3499 to 0.1868 (a 46.6% decrease), MSE reduced from 0.1225 to 0.0349 (a 71.5% reduction), and R² increased from 0.9493 to 0.9817. These improvements confirm that data augmentation not only reduces overfitting but also strengthens the model’s ability to predict large-magnitude earthquakes—classes most critical for disaster mitigation. Geospatial visualization displays the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes, identifying active seismic hotspots in regions such as the Pacific Ring of Fire, California, Alaska, and Indonesia. This research proves that data augmentation is not merely a supplementary technique but a crucial strategy to enhance model generalization and predictive performance, particularly for rare yet high-impact seismic events. The findings offer significant scientific and practical contributions to seismic hazard mitigation and risk mapping, with potential applications in early warning systems and real-time disaster response.

Pemodelan Prediktif Konsumsi Energi Listrik di Pabrik Baja Berbasis XGBoost untuk Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Berkelanjutan

Hastari Utama — 2025-08-27

This research aims to develop a predictive model for electrical energy consumption in steel plants based on XGBoost Regressor, with the goal of supporting sustainable resource management. The dataset used was obtained from the UCI Machine Learning Repository with DOI: 10.24432/C52G8C , covering real-time operational data from a steel plant during 2018, including variables such as energy consumption (Usage_kWh), reactive power, power factor, and production load status. The research process included data exploration, preprocessing, time and categorical feature extraction, and training the XGBoost Regressor model with hyperparameter optimization using Grid Search and time-series split validation. Evaluation results showed outstanding performance with an MAE of only 0.41 kWh, RMSE of 0.81 kWh, and an R² value of 0.9993, indicating that the model successfully explained nearly all variations in actual data. Feature importance analysis revealed that Lagging_Current_Reactive.Power_kVarh and CO2(tCO2) were the most influential features in predicting energy consumption. This model is not only technically accurate but also holds significant practical potential for use in industrial energy management systems, helping companies plan production schedules, avoid peak loads, and improve energy efficiency sustainably.

JURNAL MULTIDISIPLIN BHATARA

Integrasi Augmentasi Data dan Machine Learning dalam Prediksi Magnitudo Gempa Bumi

Pemodelan Prediktif Konsumsi Energi Listrik di Pabrik Baja Berbasis XGBoost untuk Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Berkelanjutan